Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe6a0…a9e6 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$193 (-2%) realized −$197 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%5W / 33L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$26
other 30% −$3
crypto 26% −$150
economics 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -50.0% -54.8% 0% 0% -18.9%
all 38 -32.3% -38.7% 13% 13% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 13% -11.3%
10% -44.6% 13% -19.8%
15% -49.9% 13% -27.6%
20% -54.9% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -37% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$38 · ×5.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses5 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage680d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 06 $131 −$127 -96%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Apr 24 $1,123 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,123 $0 -0%
Will Encore Medical not IPO before June 2026? Apr 23 $1,117 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 05 $142 −$137 -96%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 25 $125 −$123 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 10 $119 −$117 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 10PM ET Jan 17 $229 +$220 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jan 13 $227 −$227 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 6AM ET Jan 01 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3AM ET Dec 26 $199 −$97 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 6AM ET Dec 06 $82 +$79 +96%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? Nov 13 $1,231 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET Nov 09 $93 +$90 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8AM ET Oct 27 $101 +$97 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1AM ET Oct 14 $556 +$513 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2AM ET Oct 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Oct 14 $167 −$167 -100%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Aug 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in t Jul 12 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President May 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Ele May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 9? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Nov 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Léon Marchand win the most gold medals? Aug 09 $253 −$2 -1%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Trump lead by 1.5 or more points on August 9? Aug 09 $214 −$1 -0%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presiden Aug 09 $254 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Aug 09 $234 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Aug 09 $232 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, R House Aug 09 $256 −$1 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Aug 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Aug 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $251 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $142 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $131 44d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $142 75d
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $125 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $119 101d
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $449 154d
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $229 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $227 158d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $74 170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $97 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $97 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $101 176d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 6AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $82 195d
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 223d
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $93 235d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $101 243d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $74 249d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $167 249d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 1AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $556 249d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio BUY Yes 0¢ $1 313d
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in t BUY Yes 0¢ $2 343d
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 465d
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL No 100¢ $17 525d
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY No 100¢ $17 525d
Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President BUY Yes 0¢ $6 562d
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 583d
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 583d
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 611d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 648d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.87 · official $194.87 (match) · 291 history records