Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E6 0xe6a5…fbd9 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$18,651 (+71%) realized +$18,685 · open −$34

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$3,754per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$328est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-22.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	+54.3%
≤90d	2	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	+54.3%
all	2	-14.6%	-22.7%	50%	50%	+54.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.7%	50%	+54.3%
10% ← realistic here	-30.1%	50%	+39.5%
15%	-36.9%	50%	+26.0%
20%	-43.0%	50%	+13.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +70% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +70% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18,382 vs −$57 · ×322.5 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×322.5 per $1 lost it wins $322.5

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$243

Realized+$18,685

Unrealized−$34

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$328

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage26d

Avg bet$3,754

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	56¢	58¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	53¢	52¢	$49	$49	−$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Yes	57¢	56¢	$46	$46	−$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Yes	46¢	42¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	21¢	0¢	$32	$0	−$32 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$25,941	+$18,382	+71%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	May 29	$58	−$57	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$50	1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$47	1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	21¢	$33	2h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44,323	25d
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	BUY Yes	30¢	$58	26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25,941	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.21 · official $243.22 (match) · 8 history records