Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6a5…e95d sports 1052 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19,189 (-18%) realized −$19,135 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%468W / 578L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Fees−$1,369est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$2,445
crypto 13% −$2,464
other 9% +$590
world 0% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -13.8% -22.0% 43% 41% -21.4%
≤30d 1041 -4.9% -13.9% 45% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 1046 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 44% -13.1%
all 1046 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 44% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 43% -21.4%
15% -29.3% 40% -29.0%
20% -36.3% 34% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$95 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$19,135
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses468 / 578
Est. fees paid−$1,369
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1046 / 1052
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$103
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1046 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 58¢ 100¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ 40¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$162 +160%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$183 +180%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $74 +$52 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $55 +$37 +67%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $102 +$106 +104%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $102 +$121 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $102 +$105 +104%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $101 −$29 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$88 -87%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $96 −$7 -8%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $85 +$59 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $102 +$161 +158%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $102 +$52 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Jessica Pegula 100¢ $164 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 58¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $102 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 100¢ $145 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $264 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 38¢ $102 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $285 2h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 45¢ $102 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $102 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $101 3h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $101 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $208 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $101 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 48¢ $102 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $102 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $74 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $101 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $102 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 44¢ $102 15h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 42¢ $509 16h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $92 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 100¢ $92 41h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 59¢ $55 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $102 2d
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 63¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.65 · official $840.19 · 3500 history records