Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:20:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe6a9…e35a sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,771 (-6%) realized −$2,741 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,432per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 160d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$1,385
crypto 8% −$1,640
politics 1% −$300
world 1% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +77.7% +60.7% 100% 100% +47.6%
≤30d 8 -6.3% -15.2% 38% 38% +8.4%
≤90d 8 -6.3% -15.2% 38% 38% +8.4%
all 32 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 44% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -10.5%
10% -26.8% 34% -19.0%
15% -33.9% 34% -26.8%
20% -40.3% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,684) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$689 vs −$719 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$2,741
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,432
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 56¢ 40¢ $107 $78 −$30 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $932 +$1,255 +135%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $2,713 +$1,195 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $1,684 +$916 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $1,339 −$740 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $603 −$603 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $1,024 −$155 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 01 $509 −$66 -13%
Dallas Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Feb 14 $227 −$227 -100%
Cornell Big Red vs. Princeton Tigers Feb 14 $4,003 +$566 +14%
Rotterdam Open: Jaume Munar vs Alexander Bublik Feb 13 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Botic van de Zandschulp Feb 13 $6,896 +$212 +3%
Rotterdam Open: Ugo Humbert vs Christopher O'Connell Feb 13 $4,400 +$896 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 13 $4,021 +$379 +9%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs Leviatan Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Play-In Feb 03 $283 −$283 -100%
Will Russia enter Toretske by February 28? Feb 03 $271 +$50 +18%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Feb 03 $261 +$310 +119%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers Feb 03 $1,000 +$408 +41%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Feb 03 $1,000 +$755 +76%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Jan 10 $5,474 −$5,474 -100%
76ers vs. Magic Jan 10 $1,000 −$493 -49%
Brisbane International: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk Jan 09 $1,000 +$553 +55%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Juncheng Shang vs Alexander Bublik Jan 09 $500 −$500 -100%
Pacific Tigers vs. Portland Pilots Jan 09 $1,028 +$1,050 +102%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 09 $2,148 +$1,688 +79%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $626 +$402 +64%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jan 09 $238 +$388 +163%
Brisbane International: Mirra Andreeva vs Linda Noskova Jan 08 $1,096 −$100 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 44¢ $2,187 4m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 18¢ $932 26m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $3,909 39m
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 69¢ $997 1h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 69¢ $1,716 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $2,600 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 64¢ $1,684 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $83 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $599 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.82 · official $93.19 · 105 history records