Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:14:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6aa…77e4 crypto 29 markets active 2d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-21%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$41
other 4% −$2
sports 3% +$1
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -41.1% -46.7% 38% 38% -58.4%
≤30d 27 -12.8% -21.1% 59% 48% -31.5%
≤90d 27 -12.8% -21.1% 59% 48% -31.5%
all 27 -12.8% -21.1% 59% 48% -31.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 48% -31.5%
10% -28.6% 30% -38.0%
15% -35.5% 30% -44.0%
20% -41.8% 30% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 62¢ 41¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.10 · official $6.10 (match) · 74 history records