Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ab…b730 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized −$3,711 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,858
7 days−$3,858
14 days−$3,711
30 days−$3,711
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,167
sports 8% −$546
politics 6% −$786
other 1% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -30.9% -37.5% 42% 42% -37.0%
≤30d 37 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -34.9%
≤90d 37 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -34.9%
all 37 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 43% -34.9%
10% -36.2% 38% -41.1%
15% -42.4% 32% -46.8%
20% -48.0% 27% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$519) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12.09405969277819% → late -31.5114222886316% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$341 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$936
Realized−$3,711
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 68¢ 80¢ $800 $936 +$136 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 63¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Knicks 30¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $722 +$473 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $724 +$93 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $927 −$927 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $473 −$473 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1,034 −$1,012 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$164 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $725 −$725 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $188 −$175 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $713 +$258 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $183 −$180 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $132 +$36 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $407 −$394 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $517 +$437 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $505 +$73 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $514 +$321 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$105 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $517 +$245 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $522 +$801 +153%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,153 −$529 -46%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $862 −$786 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$27 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $182 +$198 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $121 −$121 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $95 +$96 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 03 $98 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $134 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $684 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $503 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $64 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1,131 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $515 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $112 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $206 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $101 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $417 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $206 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $514 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $84 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $389 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $20 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $509 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $509 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $89 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $209 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $516 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $935.82 · official $912.27 · 162 history records