Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ac…1db9 world 31 markets active 4h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$3
other 22% +$1
crypto 4% +$2
politics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 31 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage462d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $37 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $39 −$2 -4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $82 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 10 $1 +$2 +128%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 22 $10 $0 -3%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 22 $10 $0 -0%
"Sinners" Rotten Tomatoes score >95? Apr 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 05 $12 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -40%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $1 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 4h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $37 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $9 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $28 12h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $37 16h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $39 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records