Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6b4…754a sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-9%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$13
other 19% $0
politics 11% $0
world 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 29 -8.3% -17.0% 79% 21% -18.2%
all 29 -8.3% -17.0% 79% 21% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 21% -18.2%
10% -24.9% 21% -26.0%
15% -32.2% 17% -33.1%
20% -38.8% 10% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage72d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parl May 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Conservative win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamb Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 24? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 23? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $22 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Apr 17 $4 +$3 +85%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5 Apr 11 $2 +$1 +79%
Predators vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $2 +$2 +75%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Apr 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Rangers vs. Stars: O/U 4.5 Apr 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Flyers vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Oilers: O/U 7.5 Apr 05 $23 +$9 +41%
Bruins vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 23h
Will Sung Il-jong win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e BUY No 100¢ $2 21d
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $2 25d
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 35d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 43d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 45d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 47d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 48d
Will Scottish Green Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parl BUY No 100¢ $1 48d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 50d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 21-24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $2 52d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $4 54d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Conservative win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamb BUY No 100¢ $3 56d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 57d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 58d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 59d
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 54¢ $4 61d
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $1 61d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 64d
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 65d
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 26¢ $0 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.28 · official $7.28 (match) · 66 history records