Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe6b6…503c crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$1
other 31% +$4
sports 12% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×318.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2226.73 per $1 lost it wins $2226.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage203d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $102 $102 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 31 $203 +$3 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Feb 13 $102 +$1 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 29 $99 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jan 07 $100 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Dec 31 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $204 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Dec 19 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Dec 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Dec 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 06 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 9d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $33 72d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $10 72d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $21 73d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $38 73d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 98¢ $102 86d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $26 109d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $19 109d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $57 109d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $102 132d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $102 140d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 96¢ $99 146d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $90 156d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $9 156d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $100 168d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $100 168d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $103 175d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $103 183d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $17 185d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL No 100¢ $86 185d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 185d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 188d
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 188d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $75 192d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 192d
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 192d
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $102 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.28 · official $102.28 (match) · 39 history records