Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe6b7…223a sports 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$189 (+4%) realized +$199 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%75W / 79L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$240
14 days+$431
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$122
sports 11% +$219
weather 10% −$48
other 8% −$94
world 0% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +27.6% +15.5% 56% 40% -2.7%
≤30d 154 +29.1% +16.8% 49% 38% -3.9%
≤90d 154 +29.1% +16.8% 49% 38% -3.9%
all 154 +29.1% +16.8% 49% 38% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.8% 38% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here +5.6% 31% -13.1%
15% -4.6% 29% -21.5%
20% -13.9% 27% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses75 / 79
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions14
Markets (closed)154 / 168
History coverage18d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 30? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 32¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 30? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 29¢ 31¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $232 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $222 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $187 +$28 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $162 +$27 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $104 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 29? Jun 29 $41 −$31 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 29? Jun 28 $11 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $241 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $123 +$52 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $57 +$109 +191%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $9 +$11 +126%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Second half draw? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $5 +$3 +62%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $5 +$6 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 28? Jun 27 $20 −$6 -32%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$15 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 -6%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$8 +165%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$32 +159%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$9 +180%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw? Jun 26 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 +$31 +596%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.63 · official $152.64 (match) · 490 history records