Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6bb…5084 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$228 (+29%) realized +$55 · open +$173
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%19W / 5L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$148
14 days+$235
30 days+$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$138
sports 39% +$292
crypto 6% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +46.4% +32.5% 82% 82% +28.4%
≤30d 24 +38.1% +25.0% 79% 79% +31.1%
≤90d 24 +38.1% +25.0% 79% 79% +31.1%
all 24 +38.1% +25.0% 79% 79% +31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 79% +31.1%
10% +13.0% 75% +18.6%
15% +2.1% 75% +7.1%
20% -7.9% 46% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.1 per $1 lost it wins $4.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses19 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage27d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ $0 $173 +$173 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$34 +166%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$21 +101%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
France leading at halftime? Jun 09 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $21 +$24 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $171 2h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 2d
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 6d
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $20 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $30 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 11d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 100¢ $38 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 52¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.77 · official $172.77 (match) · 47 history records