Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6bb…234a sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$173 (-10%) realized −$172 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$114
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$174
other 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$12
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.6% -7.2% 38% 38% -25.2%
≤30d 11 -25.4% -32.5% 27% 27% -31.4%
≤90d 11 -25.4% -32.5% 27% 27% -31.4%
all 45 -34.6% -40.8% 33% 33% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 33% -19.9%
10% -46.5% 33% -27.6%
15% -51.7% 24% -34.6%
20% -56.4% 13% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$22 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$172
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage128d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 40¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 36¢ 36¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $102 +$137 +134%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $41 +$84 +205%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 20 $10 +$7 +69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $49 −$20 -42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$84 -82%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 18 $82 −$82 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $66 −$42 -64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Gr Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 18? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger Feb 24 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner Feb 22 $28 +$11 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Feb 22 $21 +$7 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 18? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Feb 21 $52 −$2 -4%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 21 $49 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $25 +$12 +47%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Feb 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $15 +$8 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 17 $73 +$36 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Feb 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Feb 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Feb 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 17 $67 +$49 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $75 +$37 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $88 −$8 -9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Feb 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group S Feb 16 $26 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $75 +$52 +69%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Feb 14 $29 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Feb 14 $68 +$21 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Feb 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $57 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $26 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $77 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $94 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $41 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 58¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $16 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 46¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 62¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $27 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 9¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 16¢ $24 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $82 6d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 43¢ $66 6d
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Parken Challenger BUY BC.Game Esports 57¢ $39 118d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $39 118d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 3 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $28 118d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs BUY MOUZ 62¢ $54 119d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $15 119d
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 48¢ $15 119d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $25 119d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 74¢ $21 119d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 120d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $5 120d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $37 121d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $25 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.01 · official $113.01 (match) · 122 history records