Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6bf…5cad crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$623 (-41%) realized −$465 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%54W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$385
crypto 27% −$92
other 15% −$129
sports 6% −$2
finance 1% −$21
economics 1% −$10
culture 0% −$7
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.5% -35.3% 33% 33% -1.1%
≤30d 28 -34.4% -40.7% 32% 32% -38.6%
≤90d 127 -33.0% -39.3% 32% 32% -40.3%
all 188 -39.0% -44.8% 29% 28% -43.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 28% -43.6%
10% -50.1% 28% -49.0%
15% -54.9% 25% -54.0%
20% -59.3% 22% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$465
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses54 / 134
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)188 / 201
History coverage400d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $64 $32 −$32 (-50%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-15%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 4¢ 0¢ $124 $9 −$116 (-93%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Over 39¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$13 +184%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 +$5 +172%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$15 +101%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $162 −$129 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 23 $4 +$5 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 23 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 23 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 21 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 21 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 21 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +144%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Will Belgium win on 2026- BUY 19¢ $3 49m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4 50m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 51m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $3 51m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $24 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $20 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $20 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Sc BUY 47¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $3 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $3 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $2 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 23h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $6 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 15¢ $4 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 14¢ $4 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 60¢ $4 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 31¢ $5 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 37h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 47h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Türkiye to BUY 10¢ $2 47h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye leading at halftime? AND Wil BUY 21¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.04 · official $108.46 · 443 history records