Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E6 0xe6bf…c536 other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$3,394 (+45%) realized +$3,394 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown10%max

Avg bet$1,886per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+27.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+40.9%	+27.5%	75%	75%	+43.4%
≤30d	4	+40.9%	+27.5%	75%	75%	+43.4%
≤90d	4	+40.9%	+27.5%	75%	75%	+43.4%
all	4	+40.9%	+27.5%	75%	75%	+43.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.5%	75%	+43.4%
10%	+15.3%	75%	+29.6%
15%	+4.1%	75%	+17.1%
20%	-6.1%	75%	+5.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +58% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,621 vs −$453 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×10.73 per $1 lost it wins $10.73

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$3,394

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage5d

Avg bet$1,886

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown10%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$1,012	+$1,575	+156%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3,595	+$1,967	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2,484	+$1,322	+53%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$453	−$453	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	97¢	$2,587	26m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	27¢	$331	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	41¢	$681	3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	99¢	$5,562	3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$157	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	60¢	$3,439	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,805	28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	48¢	$716	29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,767	32h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$453	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records