Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6bf…8380 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,239 (-27%) realized −$16,433 · open −$806
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,138per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$680est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$424
7 days−$7,406
14 days−$13,800
30 days−$17,529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$14,086
other 24% −$1,249
world 5% −$3,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -27.2% -34.1% 33% 33% -30.0%
≤30d 54 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 30% -37.1%
≤90d 54 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 30% -37.1%
all 54 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 30% -37.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.1% 30% -37.1%
10% -47.6% 30% -43.1%
15% -52.7% 30% -48.6%
20% -57.3% 30% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,295 vs −$1,007 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4,962
Realized−$16,433
Unrealized−$806
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$680
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1,138
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 46¢ $3,767 $3,726 −$41 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 51¢ 32¢ $2,000 $1,235 −$765 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $2,000 +$1,637 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3,050 −$3,000 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $4,060 +$3,940 +97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,041 +$4,410 +216%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,030 +$1,970 +97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 +$556 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,420 +$1,222 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $507 −$500 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,045 −$3,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $508 +$579 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $811 −$800 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 11 $406 −$400 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $812 −$800 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 172.5 Jun 10 $406 +$445 +109%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$136 +134%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$98 +97%
Matsumoto Yamaga FC vs. Nara Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 +$111 +109%
Tochigi City FC vs. Reilac Shiga: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 04 $1,827 −$1,800 -98%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $204 −$200 -98%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $1,055 +$905 +86%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $3,818 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 51¢ $2,000 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2,000 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $1,017 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $1,017 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $1,017 23h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3,000 23h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $4,060 37h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3,000 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $509 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $507 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $491 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $200 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,400 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $400 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $156 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $77 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $156 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $100 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $508 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $2,041 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,015 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $2,030 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $508 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $509 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 44¢ $508 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $1,016 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,961.79 · official $4,961.79 (match) · 111 history records