Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c0…ef85 sports 199 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%20W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
politics 24% −$3
other 20% −$4
world 7% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 198 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses20 / 178
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage175d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $28 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 30 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $127 −$1 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $62 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $72 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $73 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $63 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $67 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 14 $199 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $27 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 21d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $23 29d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $23 29d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $22 41d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $22 42d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $22 90d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $22 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL No 91¢ $34 90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY No 92¢ $34 90d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $23 90d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $23 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $27 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $27 91d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $23 91d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $23 91d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $27 91d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $27 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $32 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $32 92d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $27 92d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $27 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? SELL No 97¢ $25 92d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $25 92d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $34 92d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $34 92d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $32 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.69 · official $30.69 (match) · 818 history records