Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6c3…ea65 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,444 (+56%) realized +$1,444 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$160
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,372
world 13% +$49
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +116.3% +95.7% 100% 100% +96.6%
≤90d 7 +64.0% +48.4% 100% 100% +42.2%
all 7 +64.0% +48.4% 100% 100% +42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.4% 100% +42.2%
10% +34.2% 57% +28.6%
15% +21.2% 57% +16.1%
20% +9.3% 57% +4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$1,444
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage64d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $140 +$160 +114%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $348 +$412 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $334 +$366 +109%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $513 +$305 +60%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $442 +$58 +13%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 05 $380 +$70 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 23 $331 +$49 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $140 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $334 30d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $348 30d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 62¢ $513 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $442 46d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $380 54d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY No 87¢ $331 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.93 · official $77.93 (match) · 16 history records