Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:50:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c6…a93d world 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$6
politics 20% +$2
other 18% $0
sports 12% −$12
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 25 -7.2% -16.0% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 65 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 3% -9.7%
all 67 -4.9% -14.0% 28% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 3% -10.2%
10% -22.2% 1% -18.8%
15% -29.7% 1% -26.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage482d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 75¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $49 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $65 +$3 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $15 −$8 -55%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $43 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $4 $0 -3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $51 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $153 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $42 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 14 $10 $0 -3%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 2h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $15 7h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $7 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $8 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 80¢ $36 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $3 15h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $31 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $20 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $18 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $12 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.16 · official $0.00 · 301 history records