Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6c9…975e world 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56,742 (+363%) realized +$56,761 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,737per market
Trades / day62.4pace
Fees−$560est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$154
world 28% −$15
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +128.7% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤30d 1 +128.7% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤90d 9 +6.3% -3.9% 78% 11% -7.9%
all 9 +6.3% -3.9% 78% 11% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 11% -7.9%
10% -13.1% 11% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.5% 11% -24.8%
20% -29.2% 11% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
204.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.58 per $1 lost it wins $14.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$56,761
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$560
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$1,737
Trades / day62.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 98¢ $20 $59 +$39 (+197%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 33¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 15 $40 +$51 +129%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $60 +$3 +5%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $40 −$15 -36%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $156 +$9 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $625 +$10 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $6,302 +$112 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $4,077 +$18 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 20 $6 −$1 -17%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 20 $799 +$24 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $5 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $20 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $9 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $9 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $19 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $15 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $6 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $31 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $9 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $11 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $20 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $6 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $9 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.19 · official $60.19 (match) · 3500 history records