Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E6 0xe6cd…d3b2 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$869 (+1%) realized −$1,163 · open +$2,032
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%27W / 50L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$1,529est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5,293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days+$4,275
14 days+$1,755
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$2,078
other 3% −$1,791
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +11.9% +1.2% 45% 45% +11.2%
≤30d 64 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 38% -9.3%
≤90d 77 -5.3% -14.3% 35% 35% -11.4%
all 77 -5.3% -14.3% 35% 35% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 35% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 35% -19.9%
15% -30.0% 34% -27.7%
20% -36.8% 32% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,053) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,272 vs −$722 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$5,293
Realized−$1,163
Unrealized+$2,032
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,529
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage41d
Avg bet$871
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Ireland 15¢ 31¢ $2,220 $4,709 +$2,488 (+112%)
Will the match end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $1,040 $584 −$456 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $4,501 +$3,461 +77%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $3,008 −$564 -19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $3,302 −$3,252 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $250 −$246 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $1,942 −$1,938 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $133 +$87 +66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $668 −$653 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $2,081 +$5,608 +269%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $1,565 +$1,507 +96%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $74 +$63 +86%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $2,702 +$807 +30%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $451 −$450 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $714 +$1,284 +180%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $843 −$842 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1,749 −$1,075 -61%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $592 +$1,408 +238%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $966 −$960 -99%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $136 +$131 +96%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $567 −$530 -93%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,038 −$944 -91%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 07 $8 −$7 -97%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $215 −$215 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $355 −$26 -7%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Myanmar Jun 06 $1,445 −$1,440 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $11 +$9 +83%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $703 −$700 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $769 +$1,332 +173%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 05 $487 −$485 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $1,105 −$1,102 -100%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $600 +$1,400 +233%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $1,716 −$1,715 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Pakistan vs West Indies Jun 03 $1,275 +$360 +28%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $1,073 −$1,053 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $1,415 −$1,411 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $1,374 +$616 +45%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 03 $896 −$875 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $2,061 −$2,061 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $2,263 −$2,250 -99%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $1,847 −$1,840 -100%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $2,169 +$4,777 +220%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan Jun 01 $607 +$1,407 +232%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 01 $847 +$2,421 +286%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Northamptonshire May 31 $1,580 −$1,580 -100%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $1,259 +$1,413 +112%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $540 +$960 +178%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh May 30 $516 +$516 +100%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $469 +$1,031 +220%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Yorkshire May 29 $280 −$279 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 14¢ $693 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 13¢ $7 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 15¢ $1,538 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $1 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $506 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $45 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $8 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $82 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $82 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $7 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $82 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 45¢ $45 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 44¢ $43 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $25 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $2 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $4 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $45 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $1,000 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $24 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 60¢ $101 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 66¢ $7,839 8h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 16¢ $492 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 16¢ $492 9h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $89 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $23 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 24¢ $491 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $1 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $1 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $1 11h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 23¢ $299 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,292.90 · official $5,366.85 · 855 history records