Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:25:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ce…271d crypto 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,231 (-50%) realized −$1,105 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$107
14 days−$439
30 days−$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$899
other 34% −$46
crypto 28% −$302
politics 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +90.2% +72.1% 100% 100% +72.1%
≤30d 12 -58.9% -62.8% 25% 25% -77.7%
≤90d 25 -30.3% -36.9% 36% 32% -64.4%
all 25 -30.3% -36.9% 36% 32% -64.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 32% -64.4%
10% -42.9% 20% -67.8%
15% -48.4% 16% -70.9%
20% -53.5% 16% -73.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -62% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$89 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$455
Realized−$1,105
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage47d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $342 $346 +$4 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $95 $5 −$90 (-95%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $118 +$107 +90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $461 −$461 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $41 +$14 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $250 −$250 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 05 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 30 $2 $0 +12%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? May 29 $76 −$33 -43%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 11 $45 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 11 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 11 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 11 $24 +$22 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 11 $36 +$7 +19%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 11 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 10 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $33 +$95 +288%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $30 17m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 54m
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $27 1h
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $121 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $225 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $118 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.81 · official $454.81 (match) · 144 history records