Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe6d1…888e politics 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 242d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 83% −$5
world 12% $0
other 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 9 -10.5% -19.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 11 -8.4% -17.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -25.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -32.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage242d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $213 −$1 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -17%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Oct 24 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 5h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 10h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 12h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 17h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 17h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 19h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 22h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 25h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 29h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 30h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 32h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 36h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.61 · official $216.61 (match) · 42 history records