Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E6 0xe6d5…4b0a other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$178 (+21%) realized +$183 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$163
other 37% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 39% +17.3%
≤30d 18 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 39% +17.3%
≤90d 18 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 39% +17.3%
all 18 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 39% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 39% +17.3%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 39% +6.1%
15% -39.9% 39% -4.1%
20% -45.8% 33% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$10 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)18 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $28 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Australia 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $54 +$56 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $27 +$18 +67%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $59 −$22 -38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$49 +96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $23 +$17 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $67 +$47 +69%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $81 +$31 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $90 +$48 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3m
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 3m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 15m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 24¢ $23 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 1h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 6¢ $6 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 7h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $54 9h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $27 9h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 51¢ $51 16h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $23 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 46¢ $37 20h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 21h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $19 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 40¢ $20 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $20 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $22 39h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.80 · official $284.80 · 62 history records