Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E6 0xe6d7…657a other 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,020 (+73%) realized +$1,020 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$1,029
sports 15% −$71
other 10% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 40% -18.0%
≤30d 5 -19.7% -27.4% 60% 40% -18.0%
≤90d 10 -32.0% -38.5% 40% 30% -12.4%
all 11 -20.2% -27.8% 45% 36% +56.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 36% +56.1%
10% -34.7% 36% +41.1%
15% -41.0% 36% +27.5%
20% -46.8% 27% +15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +72% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$226 vs −$18 · ×12.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.19 per $1 lost it wins $10.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,020
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage112d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $14 +$7 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$8 +44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal Jun 11 $120 +$4 +3%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $26 −$15 -57%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $26 −$19 -73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $74 +$81 +109%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 21 $1,050 +$1,029 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $14 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 6d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 97¢ $120 27d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru SELL Punjab Kings 20¢ $11 32d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru BUY Punjab Kings 45¢ $26 32d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 15¢ $7 33d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 54¢ $26 33d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $155 35d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $74 35d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 44¢ $8 43d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 44¢ $7 43d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 36¢ $10 65d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 36¢ $2 65d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 36¢ $1 65d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 36¢ $12 65d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2,079 117d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1,050 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records