Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E6 0xe6da…0aa9 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$242 (-21%) realized −$226 · open −$16

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip

Net edge-66%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate11%1W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit6%portable

Net worth$666now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-63.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-59.6%	-63.4%	11%	11%	-63.2%
≤30d	9	-59.6%	-63.4%	11%	11%	-63.2%
≤90d	9	-59.6%	-63.4%	11%	11%	-63.2%
all	9	-59.6%	-63.4%	11%	11%	-63.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.4%	11%	-63.2%
10%	-66.9%	11%	-66.8%
15%	-70.1%	11%	-70.0%
20%	-73.0%	11%	-72.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$34 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$666

Realized−$226

Unrealized−$16

Win rate (resolved)11%

Wins / losses1 / 8

Open positions8

Markets (closed)9 / 17

History coverage4d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$197	$196	−$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	12¢	$137	$143	+$6 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$122	$123	+$1 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$67	$63	−$4 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	25¢	20¢	$72	$58	−$14 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$47	$43	−$4 (-8%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	48¢	46¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$58	−$17	-29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$38	−$38	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$44	−$44	-100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$71	−$71	-100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$53	−$53	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$21	+$11	+53%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$77	−$31	-41%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$77	−$15	-20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$16	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	48¢	$26	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$41	3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$32	7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$19	19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$26	19h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$45	19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	2¢	$9	28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$9	29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$16	30h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$25	38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	8¢	$14	39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$19	41h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$61	41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$39	41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$35	41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$14	42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$39	42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$59	42h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	25¢	$71	43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$59	43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$19	47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$21	47h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$44	2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$71	2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$62	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$71	2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$77	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.76 · official $665.76 (match) · 43 history records