Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe6da…380e crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%25W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$2
crypto 33% $0
other 10% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -6.7% -15.6% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -2.4% -11.7% 71% 0% -11.5%
all 29 -1.1% -10.5% 86% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses25 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage108d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $274 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 04 $100 −$15 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 9? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $139 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $139 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $134 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $135 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $133 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $145 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $145 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $22 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $12 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records