Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe6e0…08be politics 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$9
other 29% −$1
sports 15% −$4
world 3% $0
culture 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 80% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.6%
all 71 -6.9% -15.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage278d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 28 $508 −$1 -0%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $83 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? May 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $168 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? Feb 04 $85 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $85 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $86 $0 +0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $77 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 13 $1 $0 -50%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 01 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $2 $0 -17%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 27 $88 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -25%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 22 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 19 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $90 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $89 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 02 $90 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 25 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $92 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $181 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $86 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $82 30d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY Yes $1 113d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 113d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 113d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 117d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 117d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 125d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $84 131d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $84 138d
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 144d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 147d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 148d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 151d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 152d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 154d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 155d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 156d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $86 157d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $86 158d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $84 159d
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $84 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.90 · official $1.90 (match) · 257 history records