Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e1…c630 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$1
other 26% $0
politics 21% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 38 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage280d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $6 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $42 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix? Sep 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $11 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $10 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $21 5h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $14 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $23 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $29 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $43 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records