Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe6e1…c0c0 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$166 (+4%) realized +$328 · open −$162
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$49
other 11% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +26.1% +14.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
≤30d 19 +26.1% +14.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
≤90d 19 +26.1% +14.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
all 19 +26.1% +14.1% 58% 58% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.1% 58% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here +3.2% 58% -13.3%
15% -6.8% 53% -21.7%
20% -15.9% 47% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$180 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 55¢ 50¢ $240 $220 −$20 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 55¢ 46¢ $150 $127 −$23 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu Dragos Nicolae Cazacu 54¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $183 +$96 +52%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $142 +$191 +134%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 +$104 +172%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $102 +$117 +115%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $301 +$132 +44%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$149 +364%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $185 +$158 +85%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $264 −$260 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $192 +$130 +68%
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge Jun 16 $204 +$291 +143%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $197 +$67 +34%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $254 −$250 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $244 +$206 +84%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $190 −$187 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 55¢ $243 53m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 55¢ $152 1h
ITF Constanta: Robert Guna vs Dragos Nicolae Cazacu BUY Dragos Nicolae Cazacu 54¢ $112 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $183 10h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $164 10h
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $31 12h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $46 12h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $102 12h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 42¢ $142 12h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 100¢ $218 12h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 100¢ $133 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $190 13h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $102 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 76¢ $301 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 56¢ $301 14h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 18¢ $41 14h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 89¢ $342 14h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 47¢ $175 14h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 53¢ $9 14h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 30¢ $98 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 45¢ $264 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 17h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny SELL Martin Krumich 100¢ $322 17h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 47¢ $51 18h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 65¢ $141 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge SELL Elena Micic 99¢ $495 20h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $60 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Elena Micic vs Francisca Jorge BUY Elena Micic 40¢ $204 20h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 99¢ $264 20h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 73¢ $197 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $472.69 · official $459.60 · 40 history records