Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e4…ce20 crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,816 (-13%) realized −$6,758 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%40W / 30L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$727per market
Trades / day1122.0pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$4,459
sports 18% −$7,942
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 70 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 70 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 50% -15.5%
all 70 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 50% -15.5%
10% -18.6% 50% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -26.5% 43% -31.0%
20% -33.7% 39% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +47% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$470 vs −$741 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$6,758
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses40 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage1d
Avg bet$727
Trades / day1122.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 49¢ 30¢ $147 $88 −$58 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $245 +$255 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $245 +$255 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $245 +$255 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $342 −$152 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $173 −$169 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $43 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $196 −$192 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $192 +$60 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$18 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $199 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $163 −$163 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $181 −$181 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $248 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $238 −$238 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $406 −$406 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $413 −$413 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $2,138 −$2,138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $2,373 −$2,373 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $4,419 −$4,419 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $8,090 −$8,090 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $1,037 +$1,060 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $1,750 +$1,220 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $3,536 +$3,081 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $2,160 +$1,565 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $2,357 +$1,203 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $2,706 +$1,291 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $3,381 +$2,235 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $3,519 +$2,313 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $718 −$184 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $1,025 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $392 +$360 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $245 −$226 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $82 +$81 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $254 +$246 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $401 +$304 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $163 +$80 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $235 +$265 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $152 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $37 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $96 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $75 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $173 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $124 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $96 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $22 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $19 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $125 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $90 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $93 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $13 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.50 · official $145.50 · 1176 history records