Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e5…8e81 world 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$207 (+14%) realized +$260 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%88W / 53L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days+$152
14 days+$214
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$29
politics 26% +$29
sports 14% +$80
other 6% −$12
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% +$36
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.7% -13.8% 69% 28% +39.0%
≤30d 123 -9.0% -17.7% 65% 22% +5.5%
≤90d 141 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 25% +8.3%
all 141 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 25% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 25% +8.3%
10% -25.5% 18% -2.1%
15% -32.7% 16% -11.5%
20% -39.3% 13% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$260
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses88 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions65
Markets (closed)141 / 206
History coverage50d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $102 $129 +$27 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 76¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 55¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-24%)
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes 66¢ 40¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-39%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 92¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $36 $4 −$32 (-90%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 42¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+254%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? No 95¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+137%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 −$6 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $182 +$164 +90%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 11 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $16 +$13 +82%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $11 +$14 +122%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $12 +$21 +174%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $27 +$15 +54%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 33m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $3 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 4m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $27 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $2 4h
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 4h
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No 95¢ $3 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 66¢ $1 5h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 0¢ $1 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 6h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 18¢ $1 7h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 15¢ $1 8h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 14¢ $1 8h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 14¢ $1 8h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.40 · official $324.77 (match) · 1080 history records