Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6e7…8c77 sports 21 markets active 10d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$706 (-14%) realized −$706 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$86
30 days−$1,553
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$337
politics 29% −$623
weather 9% −$344
other 8% −$91
crypto 2% −$100
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -57.3% -61.4% 29% 0% -64.0%
≤90d 19 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 26% -25.1%
all 21 -13.5% -21.7% 52% 29% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 29% -24.1%
10% -29.2% 29% -31.4%
15% -36.0% 24% -38.0%
20% -42.3% 24% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$185 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage150d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $292 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 05 $351 −$350 -100%
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? Jun 05 $560 −$531 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $700 −$107 -15%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $484 −$479 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $51 +$28 +55%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $177 +$14 +8%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $551 +$24 +4%
Will Sonny Styles be drafted 4th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Apr 24 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Jordyn Tyson be drafted 5th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Apr 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $502 −$136 -27%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $250 +$188 +75%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $200 +$432 +216%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $353 +$280 +79%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 27 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Jan 27 $226 +$15 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $131 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $162 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 98¢ $107 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 92¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 93¢ $351 20d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? SELL Yes $29 21d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 22¢ $469 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $484 22d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Spirit 64¢ $51 36d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $51 36d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY PlayTime 57¢ $51 36d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 66¢ $25 36d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Dplus KIA 60¢ $135 36d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 61¢ $152 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 96¢ $551 36d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 52d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 53d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 53d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 53d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 54d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $99 54d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 54d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 54d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 54d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 54d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 31¢ $23 55d
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? BUY Yes 67¢ $24 56d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 40¢ $10 56d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 38¢ $91 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records