Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe6e8…7c26 crypto 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,033 (-3%) realized −$4,014 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate61%111W / 70L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$883per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1,039est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$803
7 days+$3,749
14 days+$3,749
30 days+$3,746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$8,104
other 32% −$6,345
crypto 10% −$6,926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 64% +8.4%
≤30d 17 +10.5% -0.0% 65% 65% +8.3%
≤90d 125 +2.6% -7.2% 62% 51% -12.7%
all 181 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 53% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 53% -12.5%
10% -18.5% 39% -20.8%
15% -26.4% 30% -28.5%
20% -33.6% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,178) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$636 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$982
Realized−$4,014
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses111 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,039
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage94d
Avg bet$883
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 74¢ 72¢ $1,001 $982 −$19 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $663 +$336 +51%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $1,013 +$505 +50%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $1,049 +$649 +62%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,411 −$1,399 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,716 +$711 +41%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $443 −$443 -100%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $721 +$428 +59%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $1,358 +$370 +27%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $1,492 +$488 +33%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,653 +$4,200 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,617 +$1,043 +64%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,063 −$1,452 -47%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,505 −$1,421 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $4 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,945 −$2,925 -99%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 17 $2,026 +$918 +45%
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5) May 17 $2,637 −$614 -23%
Estoril Praia vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Score May 16 $1,516 −$1,500 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $2,751 +$882 +32%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,013 −$1,216 -60%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $1,957 −$935 -48%
Córdoba CF vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 5.5 May 15 $3,012 +$434 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 14 $2,025 +$1,420 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 14 $788 −$8 -1%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $255 −$251 -98%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $509 −$254 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $381 +$127 +33%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $140 +$242 +172%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $98 +$43 +43%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $71 +$27 +38%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ: O/U 3.5 May 10 $36 +$34 +97%
Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $28 +$8 +28%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $4,875 −$4,830 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $3,796 −$476 -12%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,975 −$410 -21%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 02 $2,341 +$3,403 +145%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 02 $1,761 +$128 +7%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4,230 −$3,731 -88%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score May 02 $655 −$645 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $4,759 +$1,886 +40%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 01 $1,223 −$1,194 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $1,138 +$328 +29%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $1,680 +$34 +2%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $424 +$176 +41%
Paris Basketball vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv Apr 10 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $1,009 6m
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,000 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $663 1h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,518 3h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,013 4h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,698 30h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,049 32h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1,411 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,427 44h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,716 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $417 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $15 2d
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,149 2d
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $721 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,728 2d
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $1,358 2d
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,979 2d
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,492 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 38¢ $2,653 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,660 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,617 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 30¢ $1,611 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $3,063 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Curaçao $84 5d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 67¢ $1,505 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up $169 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $982.38 · official $982.38 (match) · 511 history records