Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ea…c5fa crypto 203 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,588 (+7%) realized +$1,588 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate71%144W / 59L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$127
14 days−$393
30 days−$535
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$431
sports 15% +$1,999
world 4% −$17
politics 2% −$64
other 1% −$17
weather 0% −$29
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.5% -6.4% 69% 8% -3.8%
≤30d 127 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 25% -12.9%
≤90d 184 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 25% -2.8%
all 203 -6.0% -15.0% 71% 23% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 23% -3.9%
10% -23.1% 15% -13.1%
15% -30.5% 10% -21.5%
20% -37.4% 6% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$34 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses144 / 59
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage156d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$15 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$17 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $201 +$7 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$7 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $200 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$8 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$21 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $203 +$60 +30%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $116 −$3 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $72 −$10 -14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $89 −$5 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $68 −$7 -10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $23 −$5 -20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -89%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $432 −$432 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $402 +$29 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $381 +$19 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $343 +$40 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $302 +$33 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $281 +$21 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $280 +$6 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $261 +$14 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $241 +$18 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $174 +$71 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $142 +$35 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $130 +$5 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $118 +$22 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $117 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $302 −$302 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $302 +$27 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $276 +$115 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $242 +$31 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $193 +$47 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $201 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $201 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $200 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $201 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $201 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $203 16h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL Yes 71¢ $113 17h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 72¢ $44 17h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 72¢ $72 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 63¢ $62 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 62¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $3 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 72¢ $72 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY No 57¢ $4 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $84 7d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 89¢ $89 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 30¢ $61 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 19¢ $18 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $68 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 23¢ $23 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 543 history records