Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E6 0xe6ee…b3aa sports 393 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 209d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,083 (+0%) realized +$2,123 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%192W / 200L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,172per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$1,011est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 209d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$11,163
other 8% −$6,819
tech 0% −$1,880
world 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -6.2% -15.2% 47% 47% -27.8%
≤30d 78 -4.5% -13.6% 47% 47% -27.8%
≤90d 129 -36.1% -42.2% 32% 32% -49.9%
all 392 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 48% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 48% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 47% -21.7%
15% -27.4% 47% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 45% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,350) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,017 vs −$1,075 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2,123
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses192 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$1,011
Open positions1
Markets (closed)392 / 393
History coverage209d ⚠
Avg bet$1,172
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $73 $33 −$40 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $129 +$75 +58%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $955 +$1,045 +109%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $2,645 −$2,608 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $2,921 −$2,874 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $697 +$303 +44%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $2,803 −$2,764 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $4,121 −$4,064 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $802 +$878 +109%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $484 +$509 +105%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $919 +$1,183 +129%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $828 −$818 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,409 −$1,404 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $825 +$675 +82%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,245 +$1,094 +88%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $432 +$334 +77%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $542 +$565 +104%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,019 +$746 +73%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $17 +$14 +82%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,246 −$2,222 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,223 −$1,220 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,690 −$1,690 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $167 −$166 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,065 −$2,065 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $93 +$91 +98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,025 +$996 +97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $128 +$118 +92%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,228 +$822 +37%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $900 +$1,100 +122%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $404 −$404 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,207 −$1,207 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,065 +$907 +85%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,654 +$1,782 +108%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,473 +$1,529 +104%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $716 −$716 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,160 +$902 +78%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $673 −$63 -9%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $996 +$1,191 +120%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,092 −$40 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $877 −$198 -23%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,027 +$973 +95%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $560 +$440 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 21 $193 −$193 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $262 −$262 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $365 −$365 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $458 −$458 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $729 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $231 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $332 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $41 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $8 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $141 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $17 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $14 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $25 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 50¢ $1,015 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $955 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $89 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $365 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $338 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $850 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $66 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $4 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $645 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $120 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $13 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $44 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $38 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $25 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $201 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $691 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $9 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $4 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $376 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $21 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.35 · official $33.35 (match) · 3500 history records