Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6ef…f8fc other 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 226L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$35
sports 25% −$20
politics 9% −$8
culture 9% −$9
economics 6% −$5
world 4% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage129d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $176 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $586 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $140 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $393 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $525 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $446 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $215 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $345 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $284 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $310 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $128 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $383 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $221 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 3h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $47 4h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $47 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $47 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $47 11h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 13h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $12 18h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 20h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $48 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 30h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 38h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $48 40h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 43h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $48 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $48 45h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1339 history records