Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6f0…a862 sports 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%73W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$11
14 days−$27
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$11
other 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.9% -37.5% 38% 38% -29.6%
≤30d 44 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 32% -17.5%
≤90d 165 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 36% -9.0%
all 165 -11.1% -19.6% 44% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 36% -9.0%
10% -27.2% 30% -17.7%
15% -34.3% 24% -25.7%
20% -40.7% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses73 / 92
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 167
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 55¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$13 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $3 +$4 +134%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $4 +$1 +29%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $3 +$1 +18%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Centurion 2: Oscar Weightman vs Devin Badenhorst Jun 02 $6 −$2 -26%
Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Exort Series Mai Jun 01 $12 $0 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinos May 31 $6 $0 +3%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Hanwha Eagles May 31 $6 −$1 -15%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. LG Twins May 31 $6 −$1 -15%
Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$4 +129%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia end in a draw? May 30 $3 +$5 +165%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins May 30 $6 −$3 -49%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 29 $3 +$2 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $6 $0 -7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 −$1 -19%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America May 22 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe Academy vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Sea May 22 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $3 +$1 +44%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D May 19 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $3 $0 -3%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - L May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $3 +$3 +105%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 16 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $6 +$15 +238%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade May 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 12 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 55¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 16h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 14¢ $3 42h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 14¢ $3 42h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 58¢ $3 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 33¢ $5 9d
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 13¢ $3 9d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C BUY Execration 68¢ $3 10d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 77¢ $4 11d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 84¢ $3 11d
Heilbronn: Hugo Dellien vs Max Schoenhaus BUY Hugo Dellien 59¢ $3 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 49¢ $3 12d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 52¢ $3 12d
Centurion 2: Oscar Weightman vs Devin Badenhorst BUY Oscar Weightman 34¢ $3 12d
Centurion 2: Oscar Weightman vs Devin Badenhorst BUY Devin Badenhorst 67¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.85 · official $5.69 (match) · 691 history records