Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe6f3…2568 other 458 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,024 (-2%) realized −$4,043 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate51%228W / 216L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$400per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$922est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$970
7 days−$3,104
14 days−$1,429
30 days−$1,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$1,799
other 21% −$1,631
world 18% −$1,961
politics 15% −$710
crypto 5% +$579
economics 3% +$39
finance 1% +$146
tech 0% −$24
culture 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -20.0% -27.6% 28% 9% -16.2%
≤30d 59 -12.0% -20.3% 29% 10% -11.5%
≤90d 222 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 21% -12.1%
all 444 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 22% -12.3%
10% -23.2% 12% -20.6%
15% -30.6% 7% -28.3%
20% -37.4% 4% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$89 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$2,097
Realized−$4,043
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses228 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$922
Open positions14
Markets (closed)444 / 458
History coverage298d
Avg bet$400
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $270 $271 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $240 $263 +$23 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 91¢ $260 $256 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $246 $252 +$7 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $118 $110 −$8 (-7%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $6,319 +$241 +4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,356 −$115 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $604 −$182 -30%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $131 −$95 -73%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,934 −$276 -7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $560 −$298 -53%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,400 −$74 -5%
Will Jimmy Stanger win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $301 +$33 +11%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $567 +$54 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $305 −$191 -63%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $805 +$9 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,520 +$77 +3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1,646 −$196 -12%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $1,595 −$619 -39%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $998 −$117 -12%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $1,606 −$86 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $1,285 +$25 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,354 −$99 -7%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $228 −$31 -14%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $78 −$21 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $1,085 −$113 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $1,006 −$37 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $297 +$200 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $449 −$444 -99%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 11 $1,932 −$80 -4%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $584 −$85 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $472 −$111 -24%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,406 +$407 +29%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,182 −$216 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $2,011 +$75 +4%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $2,854 −$674 -24%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $889 −$19 -2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $102 −$71 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $805 −$19 -2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $2,190 +$504 +23%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $3,852 +$293 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,658 +$400 +24%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $1,478 +$89 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $2,076 −$154 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $4,129 +$996 +24%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $1,156 −$344 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $1,000 −$11 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1,000 −$3 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,009 −$3 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $464 −$19 -4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 31 $39 −$4 -10%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 29 $252 −$28 -11%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 27 $968 −$33 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $595 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $30 1h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $32 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $196 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $200 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $382 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $200 13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $201 13h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $281 13h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 14¢ $82 14h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $256 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $36 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $131 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $131 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $279 17h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $277 17h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $299 26h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $299 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,096.91 · official $2,096.91 (match) · 2131 history records