Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe6fa…ac8f sports 496 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$565 (+2%) realized +$573 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%180W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$350est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 162d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,195
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +49.6% +35.3% 100% 100% +35.3%
≤30d 44 +17.8% +6.6% 36% 36% -1.6%
≤90d 416 -38.6% -44.4% 27% 26% -32.3%
all 495 -12.2% -20.5% 36% 35% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 35% -15.9%
10% -28.1% 33% -24.0%
15% -35.1% 32% -31.3%
20% -41.4% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$43 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$573
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses180 / 315
Est. fees paid−$350
Open positions1
Markets (closed)495 / 496
History coverage162d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage LOS 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $61 +$30 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$29 +29%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $142 +$103 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$29 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$4 -4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $263 −$120 -46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$105 +103%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $149 −$47 -31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$127 +125%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $0 $0 +48%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$249 +122%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$19 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $104 −$3 -3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$56 +55%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $61 −$8 -14%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$67 +66%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $66 −$65 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$88 +88%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $246 −$63 -26%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $102 +$108 +106%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $37 −$37 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $92 +$354 +384%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $20 +$22 +107%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner May 31 $81 +$8 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $71 −$10 -14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 25 $10 +$24 +240%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $81 −$20 -25%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $49 −$49 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL DN SOOPers 100¢ $147 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 7¢ $2 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 10¢ $6 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY DN SOOPers 68¢ $101 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $91 23h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 66¢ $61 24h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 20¢ $51 11d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 25¢ $20 11d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 99¢ $130 12d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 76¢ $101 12d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 99¢ $245 12d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 55¢ $101 12d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 60¢ $40 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $20 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $1 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $89 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $61 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $162 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 5¢ $4 13d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $101 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $3 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $257 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $41 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $101 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $121 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $206 13d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $102 13d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud9 3¢ $3 13d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $177 13d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 56¢ $101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 1205 history records