Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe6fd…8bc3 world 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 325d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,441 (-2%) realized −$2,308 · open −$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%268W / 167L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$5,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 326d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$3,970
other 17% +$776
finance 6% +$454
politics 6% −$598
sports 2% −$942
tech 1% −$487
economics 0% −$22
culture 0% −$148
crypto 0% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 49 -12.4% -20.7% 61% 37% -8.2%
≤90d 168 -3.3% -12.5% 67% 48% -6.1%
all 435 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 47% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 47% -7.2%
10% -14.9% 30% -16.1%
15% -23.1% 20% -24.2%
20% -30.6% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$137 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$5,509
Realized−$2,308
Unrealized−$133
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses268 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions21
Markets (closed)435 / 456
History coverage326d ⚠
Avg bet$290
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 67¢ 70¢ $694 $730 +$36 (+5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $705 $700 −$5 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $649 $654 +$5 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 62¢ $540 $625 +$85 (+16%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $480 $477 −$3 (-1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $445 $430 −$15 (-3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $382 $384 +$2 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? No 77¢ 80¢ $368 $379 +$12 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 73¢ $316 $289 −$28 (-9%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 31¢ 22¢ $376 $257 −$119 (-32%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $251 $246 −$4 (-2%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 83¢ 86¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $59 $65 +$6 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 10¢ $80 $47 −$33 (-41%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 55¢ $32 $37 +$4 (+13%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 52¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+9%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 71¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $79 $15 −$65 (-82%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $3 −$11 (-77%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $1,767 −$66 -4%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $428 −$89 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $228 −$228 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $336 +$46 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $365 −$365 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $329 −$322 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $4,351 +$4,900 +113%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $185 +$15 +8%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 18 $306 +$11 +4%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 18 $369 −$6 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 18 $626 +$2 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $152 +$6 +4%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $181 +$23 +13%
Blue wave in 2026? Jun 17 $250 +$44 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $121 −$11 -9%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $252 +$11 +4%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 17 $309 +$20 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 17 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 17 $577 +$113 +20%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $307 +$10 +3%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $107 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,963 −$362 -18%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 14 $78 +$2 +3%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 14 $136 +$3 +2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $420 +$35 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5,101 −$1,972 -39%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $396 +$144 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $3,202 −$2,301 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $190 −$14 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 10 $25 +$11 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $804 +$45 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $330 −$251 -76%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $457 −$288 -63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $522 −$367 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $982 +$98 +10%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 +$19 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $122 +$28 +23%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 03 $110 −$109 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $396 +$144 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $1,876 +$471 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $522 +$115 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $468 +$72 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $252 +$90 +36%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4,326 +$158 +4%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $224 +$158 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5,423 +$1,584 +29%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 28 $217 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $649 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 87¢ $435 4d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY No 12¢ $58 5d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $936 5d
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $82 5d
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $321 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $7 5d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $161 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $382 5d
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 5d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 96¢ $963 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $445 5d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $58 5d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 6d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $6 6d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $95 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $251 6d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY No 90¢ $102 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $109 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $62 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $10 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $0 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,508.66 · official $5,508.66 (match) · 3500 history records