Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
E7 0xe700…7005 crypto 82 markets active 3d ago coverage 580d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$50,133 (+25%) realized +$52,348 · open −$2,215
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 37L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$2,435per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$7,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,360
14 days−$2,386
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$80,370
world 20% −$26,406
other 4% −$413
sports 4% −$937
politics 1% −$2,400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+50.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -58.3% -62.3% 17% 17% -14.3%
≤90d 11 +16.2% +5.1% 45% 36% +24.4%
all 75 +66.1% +50.2% 51% 49% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.2% 49% +15.4%
10% ← realistic here +35.9% 47% +4.4%
15% +22.7% 45% -5.7%
20% +10.7% 45% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$3,200) neutral
Persistence
early +53% → late +78% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,012 vs −$2,703 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$7,131
Realized+$52,348
Unrealized−$2,215
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions7
Markets (closed)75 / 82
History coverage580d
Avg bet$2,435
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 48¢ $1,800 $4,800 +$3,000 (+167%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $849 $1,038 +$190 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $530 $434 −$96 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $403 $374 −$28 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $435 $278 −$157 (-36%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $330 $158 −$172 (-52%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Yes 20¢ $5,000 $50 −$4,950 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $675 −$675 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $824 −$805 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $895 −$880 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $2,061 +$3,092 +150%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 23 $1,598 +$153 +10%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $265 −$42 -16%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $240 +$342 +142%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $340 +$520 +153%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 19 $1,085 +$2,652 +244%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Feb 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $5,140 +$4,840 +94%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $4,877 +$699 +14%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $702 −$702 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 25 $1,950 −$1,950 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jan 25 $3,881 −$3,881 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 20 $2,887 +$2,887 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11? Jan 07 $750 +$1,710 +228%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 6? Jan 05 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Dec 20 $7,700 −$7,700 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Nov 14 $1,600 +$6,900 +431%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 8? Nov 08 $930 +$120 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November? Nov 05 $2,500 +$4,182 +167%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 04 $1,000 +$6,499 +650%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? Nov 04 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Nov 03 $9,938 −$9,938 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $3,200 +$2,800 +88%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $1,000 +$2,799 +280%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 28 $5,011 +$8,489 +169%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by October 31? Aug 08 $37 +$78 +212%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31? Aug 08 $71 +$948 +1329%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 30 $9,660 −$9,660 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3100 on July 18? Jul 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $160 on June 13? Jul 14 $2,147 +$3,491 +163%
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $150 on July 4? Jul 14 $5,757 +$3,710 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 14 $7,333 −$7,333 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in July? Jul 14 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 10 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Ethereum above $2,500 on June 20? Jun 20 $950 +$1,375 +145%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 20? Jun 17 $1,330 +$1,330 +100%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jun 17 $1,650 +$2,225 +135%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2600 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,700 +$3,800 +141%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Jun 14 $1,850 +$1,900 +103%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2600 on June 13? Jun 13 $999 +$2,182 +218%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? Jun 12 $800 +$1,250 +156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 04 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $47 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,131.40 · official $7,132.40 (match) · 2559 history records