Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E7 0xe706…89bc sports 745 markets active 1h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,628 (+4%) realized +$6,540 · open +$1,088
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%284W / 452L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1,801est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$852
7 days−$884
14 days−$5,002
30 days−$10,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$601
other 24% +$6,039
crypto 5% −$946
politics 1% −$1,659
world 1% +$660
economics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.4% -14.4% 36% 36% -17.5%
≤30d 187 -15.7% -23.7% 34% 34% -23.2%
≤90d 419 -2.5% -11.8% 41% 41% -5.8%
all 736 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 38% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 38% -7.5%
10% -23.3% 36% -16.4%
15% -30.7% 35% -24.5%
20% -37.5% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$183 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$6,261
Realized+$6,540
Unrealized+$1,088
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses284 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,801
Open positions4
Markets (closed)736 / 745
History coverage649d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 736 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $4,972 $6,059 +$1,087 (+22%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 26¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 36¢ 34¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $148 −$145 -98%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $148 −$145 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $286 +$201 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $159 −$156 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $325 −$320 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 19 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $554 −$546 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $458 −$450 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $1,269 −$1,250 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $234 +$247 +106%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $299 +$883 +296%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $305 +$314 +103%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$126 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $407 +$443 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $627 −$627 -100%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $917 −$91 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 +$384 +188%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $142 +$115 +81%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $491 +$442 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $603 +$1,073 +178%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $386 +$415 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 +$323 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $238 −$238 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $264 −$65 -25%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 12 $389 −$389 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $224 −$224 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $405 −$405 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $1 46m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $61 46m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $41 47m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $51 47m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $51 48m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $46 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $102 1h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 14¢ $26 4h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 14¢ $21 4h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 35¢ $51 4h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 34¢ $51 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 18h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $284 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $152 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $153 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $309 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $203 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 43h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $328 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 19¢ $43 47h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 45¢ $102 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AND SELL 19¢ $95 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 SELL 41¢ $49 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $47 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,261.13 · official $6,561.13 · 2687 history records