Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E7 0xe707…e0cf crypto 870 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-2%) realized −$256 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate44%419W / 537L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$381now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$790
7 days−$664
14 days−$747
30 days−$949
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$574
sports 7% −$145
other 5% +$76
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -67.6% -70.7% 16% 16% -52.5%
≤30d 303 -35.3% -41.4% 38% 19% -26.0%
≤90d 956 -10.3% -18.9% 44% 31% -17.3%
all 956 -10.3% -18.9% 44% 31% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 31% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 25% -25.2%
15% -33.7% 21% -32.5%
20% -40.2% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$381
Realized−$256
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses419 / 537
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)956 / 870
History coverage54d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $43 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 55¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Chicago Cubs 54¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Madrid Open: Daria Snigur vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $29 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $12 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $11 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $12 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 54¢ $11 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $11 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $11 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 14h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $7 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $6 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 66¢ $7 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 55¢ $6 25h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $6 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $6 25h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $6 25h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $5 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $5 25h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $6 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 25h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $6 25h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $6 25h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $6 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $23 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $381.35 · official $381.35 (match) · 3000 history records