Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe708…b592 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$409 (-7%) realized −$443 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%63W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$287
14 days−$287
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$888
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -68.8%
≤30d 11 -39.8% -45.6% 27% 27% -68.8%
≤90d 157 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 39% -24.6%
all 157 -8.8% -17.5% 40% 39% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 39% -24.6%
10% -25.4% 36% -31.8%
15% -32.6% 35% -38.4%
20% -39.2% 32% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$34 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$443
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses63 / 94
Open positions3
Markets (closed)157 / 160
History coverage57d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 9¢ 50¢ $6 $34 +$28 (+445%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 27¢ 50¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 21¢ 50¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+140%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$14 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$43 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 27 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 27 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 27 $35 +$36 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 27 $25 +$50 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 27 $88 +$86 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 27 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 27 $25 −$10 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 27 $30 +$61 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 27 $63 +$119 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 27 $40 −$37 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 27 $18 +$37 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 27 $45 +$60 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 27 $21 +$32 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 27 $24 +$26 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 27 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 27 $24 +$53 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 27 $82 +$113 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.12 · official $46.12 (match) · 868 history records