Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E7 0xe70c…17c5 sports 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,810 (+23%) realized +$3,810 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,044
7 days−$1,044
14 days−$1,044
30 days−$1,044
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$3,637
sports 46% −$516
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -24.5%
≤30d 23 -26.6% -33.6% 35% 35% -24.5%
≤90d 40 -22.8% -30.2% 42% 35% +1.3%
all 56 -18.8% -26.6% 43% 36% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 36% +10.5%
10% -33.6% 25% -0.0%
15% -40.0% 20% -9.7%
20% -45.9% 11% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$86 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage150d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $439 +$93 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $663 +$122 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $372 −$167 -45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $566 −$564 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $183 −$66 -36%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $110 −$53 -48%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $588 −$251 -43%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $113 +$48 +43%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,110 −$329 -30%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 19 $71 −$28 -40%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $75 −$39 -52%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $86 −$64 -75%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $274 +$91 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$22 -44%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $183 −$23 -12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $381 +$151 +40%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $116 +$19 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $51 +$6 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $295 −$3 -1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $463 +$139 +30%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5 May 01 $102 +$116 +114%
Spezia Calcio vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5 May 01 $153 −$150 -98%
UC Sampdoria vs. FC Südtirol: O/U 2.5 May 01 $93 −$91 -98%
SSC Bari vs. Virtus Entella: O/U 2.5 May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 4.5 May 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Will SS Juve Stabia vs. Frosinone Calcio end in a draw? May 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $190 +$47 +25%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $56 −$12 -22%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $150 +$10 +7%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $89 +$35 +39%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 Apr 24 $31 +$3 +9%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $199 +$189 +95%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: Both Teams to Score Apr 24 $36 +$14 +38%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $2,550 +$2,376 +93%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $104 +$8 +7%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $359 +$68 +19%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $344 +$165 +48%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 Mar 21 $325 +$430 +132%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07? Mar 21 $2,213 +$1,746 +79%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-07? Mar 21 $2,656 −$447 -17%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 07 $9 $0 -3%
Villarreal CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 06 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Mar 06 $1 +$4 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $75 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $24 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $5 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $17 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $75 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $75 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $75 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $76 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $76 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $22 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $34 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $50 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $50 2h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $5 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records