Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe70c…1512 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+13%) realized −$12 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$35
other 16% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 33% -6.6%
≤30d 15 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 33% -6.6%
≤90d 15 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 33% -6.6%
all 15 -17.5% -25.3% 33% 33% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 33% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 33% -15.5%
15% -39.0% 33% -23.7%
20% -45.0% 33% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 44¢ 92¢ $50 $105 +$55 (+110%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $20 +$11 +54%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $15 −$10 -67%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $10 +$10 +102%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $41 −$10 -24%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $10 +$18 +178%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $25 +$31 +124%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$22 -71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$28 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $51 1h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 100¢ $31 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 10¢ $5 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 29¢ $15 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 8¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 6¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 11¢ $10 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 15¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 64¢ $20 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Team Nemesis 8¢ $5 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $20 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $1 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 31¢ $10 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 12¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 99¢ $28 8h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 35¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 41¢ $5 21h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 42¢ $5 21h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $25 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 21h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $29 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $30 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.11 · official $103.98 · 31 history records