Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E7 0xe710…57f9 sports 843 markets active 18h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+3%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate69%584W / 259L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$25
14 days+$29
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$40
other 21% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -1.0% -10.5% 63% 50% -11.5%
≤30d 843 +4.4% -5.6% 69% 57% -8.2%
≤90d 843 +4.4% -5.6% 69% 57% -8.2%
all 843 +4.4% -5.6% 69% 57% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.6% 57% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 40% -17.0%
15% -22.9% 27% -25.0%
20% -30.4% 19% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses584 / 259
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)843 / 843
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 843 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 −$3 -81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $8 +$13 +159%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -33%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 −$1 -12%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -19%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -23%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -38%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-24.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-22.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $2 18h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 84¢ $1 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 19¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $0 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 83¢ $4 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 31¢ $0 2d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $4 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $4 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 30¢ $4 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 3d
Spread: Australia (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 91¢ $4 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 59¢ $4 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $4 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 3d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 70¢ $4 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1852 history records