Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe712…9a10 weather 872 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,246 (+12%) realized +$3,234 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%628W / 533L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day72.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$2,352
world 0% −$41
crypto 0% −$2
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -64.3% -67.7% 25% 12% -39.8%
≤30d 963 -28.9% -35.7% 51% 28% -16.2%
≤90d 1161 -25.6% -32.7% 54% 27% -15.1%
all 1161 -25.6% -32.7% 54% 27% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 27% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.1% 12% -23.2%
15% -45.0% 7% -30.6%
20% -50.4% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$3,234
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses628 / 533
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1161 / 872
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day72.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? No 93¢ 99¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 94¢ 99¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? No 90¢ 91¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 94¢ 97¢ $24 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? No 93¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? No 90¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? No 88¢ 97¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 451 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 11? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 28? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 11? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 28? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on April 12? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 11? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 29? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on April 11? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 9? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 5? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 3? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 23? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 26? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 23? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on May 6? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 6? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 29? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 20? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 21? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 7? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on April 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 3? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 1? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on April 27? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 29 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 10? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on April 6? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 21? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 7? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 4? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on May Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on March 26? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 27? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on April 10? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $27 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 100-101°F on June 17 BUY No 93¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 72¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $17 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $11 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $7 18h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 34¢ $9 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 25¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 23¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $38 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 37¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 34¢ $7 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 62¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.37 · official $299.33 (match) · 3500 history records