Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe712…ad89 sports 1101 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-5%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%569W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days−$26
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$86
other 32% −$33
crypto 24% −$1
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 56% -11.4%
≤30d 434 -8.2% -17.0% 55% 53% -16.6%
≤90d 957 -8.5% -17.2% 51% 50% -17.1%
all 1101 -7.8% -16.6% 52% 50% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 50% -16.3%
10% -24.5% 47% -24.3%
15% -31.8% 41% -31.6%
20% -38.5% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses569 / 532
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1101 / 1101
History coverage109d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1101 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.60 · official $2.60 (match) · 2348 history records