Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E7 0xe713…ac52 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 47L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$7
other 28% $0
politics 10% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 27% 18% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +16.6% +5.5% 27% 18% -7.9%
all 62 +2.5% -7.3% 24% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -8.9%
10% -16.1% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage307d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 +$4 +170%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $31 +$5 +18%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Jan 30 $5 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 30 $14 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $6 $0 -6%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $2 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $54 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $39 10h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 75¢ $50 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $51 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $12 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $56 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $50 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 15¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 40¢ $36 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $29 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.45 · official $54.45 (match) · 255 history records